Where Have All the Seniors Gone?

Graduation has come and gone for high school seniors. As I sat listening to the salutatorian, gazing across the sea of eager faces ready to get that diploma in hand, I began wondering just what path these graduating students will take. Afterall, in our small village, we think that everyone of these smiling faces will pursue a 4-year college degree. At least, that’s the path we prepare them to take.

I went to the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems to find surprisingly that only 52% of the graduating high school students in Texas will go on to college. Our high school’s data profile sheet boasts 55% plan on attending a 4-year college. Note that I said plans as the data comes from a survey of senior level students, not from any valid and reliable longitundinal study.

Throughout the year colleges and universities around Texas and beyond send marketing representatives out to high schools in pursuit of future enrollees. They hand out logo-emblazoned pens, trinkets, bumper stickers and slick four-color brochures extolling the virtues and benefits of attending their particular halls of learning. As the students’ senior year closes they begin receiving letters of acceptance, or rejection, from the several programs of higher learning of their choice. So, what happens to the 52% who pack up and move off to the ivy walls? Do they succeed?

For a look at that, I went to College Results Online to compare the graduation rates of some major Texas colleges (15,000 + student population). Here’s the data it provided:

2007 4-year Graduation Rate Public Colleges
U of Texas Austin 47%; Texas A&M U 38.4%; Texas Tech U 27.8%; Texas State U 22.4%; U of North Texas 14.7%; U of Houston 7.2%

2007 4-year Graduation Rate Private Not-For-Profit Colleges
Rice 77.5%; Southern Methodist U 55.5%; Texas Cristian U 50.3%; Baylor U 48%

I was surprised! After four years the best a major public university can get through their programs of higher learning is not even half of those enrolled freshmen. If your high school had that kind of graduating student rate, I’ll bet parents would demand that TEA launch a full-scale investigation.

I realize that there are reasons for this pitiful display. I am certain that each individual college can counter these figures with factual data that in their eyes mitigates the shame or in the least shifts the blame. In all fairness, let’s look at the rest of the story. Take a look at this:

2007 5-year Graduation Rate Public Colleges
U of Texas Austin 72.7%; Texas A&M U 71.7%; Texas Tech U 50.3%; Texas State U 47.2%; U of North Texas 32.4%; U of Houston 31%

2007 5-year Graduation Rate Private Not-For-Profit Colleges
Rice 88.8%; Southern Methodist U 69.3%; Texas Cristian U 66.9%; Baylor U 69.2%

The rate after that fifth-year victory lap are significantly better. Why is that? Do students continue one more year of study in their major field for scholarly investigation? Are they re-taking courses due to failing grades or dropped classes? Is it that mommy/daddy’s pockets are bulging with discretionary educational dollars demanding to be spent on one more year of college memories?

If only half of graduating high school students enroll in a “4-year college”, yet, only half of them graduate from that college, what are the rest doing? In 2007 approximately 240,000 students graduated from a Texas high school. That’s about 120,000 who enrolled in a 4-year college of which about 60,000 did not complete the program. I understand why the state educational system and the public hold Texas high school teachers accountable for student success, when will they offer the same scrutiny of accountability to higher education? One would think that the parents shelling out thousands of hard-earned dollars to those colleges might be a bit upset.

There are several points to be made from all this. I will make only one in the form of a question. If only half of the graduating seniors are college-bound, and only half of those complete a 4-year program, then where did the other 180,000 go? I’m working on an answer for you. Until then, I gladly invite your comments.